• Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home Articles
News

China Now A Multilateral Play

Print

Op/Ed Commentary: By Chris Devonshire-Ellis

Jul. 9 – When I first came to China some 20 plus years ago, and subsequently established Dezan Shira & Associates 18 years back, it seemed at the time as if China would be the only market possible to concentrate on. Huge, diverse, and going through immense social, economic and political changes, I never considered the possibility that its progress would be so dynamic that it would carry not just its own reform, but that of the entire region with it. Yet that is what has happened, and far more beyond the borders of Asia.

The China boom, remarkable as it has been, has not just been down to China in the ascendancy. China has also been fortunate enough to have been developing just at the same time as global technology has transformed our lives. Without it, China today would not be anywhere near as successful as it has been, and the early days of China investment were nowhere like today’s frenetic scrambling. For a start, the technology that allows you to read your writer’s articles did not exist. There was no Internet and even a fax machine was a luxury. China’s success then has been as much built on the speed of global communications as it has its own hard work and pace of reforms. Back in the early 90s, secure in employment with Asia Law & Practice in Hong Kong, I recall their then co-founder telling me “China is dirty and horrible, don’t go” – a mantra oft repeated in the days prior to Hong Kong’s handover in 1997. Fortunately I didn’t listen, and neither did I believe that one could “manage” China from Hong Kong; a different mindset and rather too many ferry journeys from Shekou (Shenzhen) to the Shun Tak Center (Hong Kong) taught me that Mainland China, even just across the border, was a completely different animal. Some consultants and writers of course will have you believe differently, that you can write or proselytize about China from London, New York, Washington or Seattle, and that of course suits them fine. China without getting your hands dirty. But for real China, you have to live it.

For so long then, living China was about being caught in the middle of a huge kaleidoscope, one looked at China from each different city, and it changed patterns. It took a long time to make sense of that, and to begin to understand what China sometimes is – a collection of different areas, each unique. Not for nothing does China have seven different languages on its banknotes. We got lucky in some respects; a German client had us establish seventeen different representative offices in 17 different China cities early on in the firm’s life, and that experience, unlikely ever to be repeated today, broke the firm into “national” mode as we saw what was going in cities as diverse as Kunming, Urumqi, Lanzhou and Baotao as much as we did Hangzhou, Chongqing and Xiamen. But another decade plus, and even those cities are not enough to contain China business.

As China has grown and developed, so has its influence on its neighbor countries. Like a pebble dropped into a pond, those ripples of economic development and GDP growth have spread out far beyond even China’s now fashionable second- and third-tier cities. China Briefing Magazine used to introduce, even years ago the exotic investment destinations in China’s Western regions. Now we produce material on India, Vietnam, Russia and Emerging Asia. China in the past two decades has grown from being what for many was a two city country, (Beijing and Shanghai) to three (Guangzhou) and is now way beyond that.

Understanding China and the opportunities it represents has spilled over the borders, and those ripples spread far and wide. China’s economic development is now affecting in a major way the economies of Vietnam, Russia, and Kazakhstan. It solely supports North Korea as a state – and as a direct consequence even foreign investment in the country, for example Nick Bonner’s now famous Koryo Tours as well as a handful of quietly operating private bankers and investment firms. Our 2point6billion.com site even features a monthly DPRK update. China is now a major inter-continental investor – consultants from Africa and Latin America are thriving on their expertise.

China then, in appreciating and being able to react to what is going on, and where the business and investment opportunities lie, has gone from being a unilateral play, with perhaps just one initial foreign invested location on the radar in-country, to a multilateral play. It is important that foreign investors looking at the country realize this – increasing costs and competition alter the perceived dynamics of trade. What was a good bet 10 years ago as an investment may now be superseded. A decade ago, Pou Chen, the huge Taiwanese group, built a footwear business park just outside Guangzhou. Pou Chen encouraged a number of foreign partners to establish operations there, everyone from tanneries to rubber sole manufacturers to lace eye metal producers. It was a tremendous success – but now the cost benefits for the shoe industry are increasingly shifting to Vietnam.

India too, is generating some heat for Chinese manufacturers, even on their own soil. Indian MNC’s, especially in the auto sector, are casting eyes at servicing China’s domestic markets. Other industries will follow, and this will also change the dynamics of competition and space for China. It means that the China expertise can no longer be viewed from the perspective of Beijing or Shanghai. It requires a multilateral approach, because as huge as China is, those multilateral plays will be affecting what goes on internally in China, just as much as China affects them. ASEAN alone, with its population of 580 million is beginning to have an impact on the opportunities in China as well as the markets beyond it. This trend, accelerated by the pure speed of global communications, where it is possible to obtain quotes from suppliers in Wuxi as easily as it is from Chennai or Ho Chi Minh City means the smart money is on Emerging Asia. China may be its hub, but it’s the multilateral dimension that counts when making informed decisions. Understanding China properly means viewing the country as a multinational play.

Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the principal and founder of Dezan Shira & Associates, a foreign direct investment practice specializing in the Emerging Asia region. The firm maintains offices throughout China, Hong Kong, India and Vietnam. Contact: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Source - China Briefing (http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2010/07/09/china-now-a-multilateral-play.html#more-8462)

 

Chinese owners, French workers

Print

FOR France, known for both its anti-globalisation sentiments and regular protests against outsourcing, the shoe may now be on the other foot. China - the famous factory to the world that has been accused of siphoning away French jobs - is set to outsource work to, well, France.

Globalisation is coming to the rescue of a country singing the blues with its rapidly rising unemployment. And to add to the historical irony, Chinese workers arriving to jump-start the project will be occupying villas and barracks built for the United States forces during the heyday of French cooperation with Nato.

In 1967, when US forces withdrew from Chateauroux Air Station, the graffiti sprayed on the wall urged 'US go home'. There is no 'Welcome China' bunting in the small town south of Paris, but French negotiators will be arriving in Beijing this month to formalise plans for the Chateauroux Business District. (Abandoning resistance to foreign languages, the special economic zone has been christened in English.)

Under an accord signed last year, 30 to 50 Chinese electronic and light manufacturing companies will set up assembly plants in the district, creating 4,000 jobs - a total of 80 per cent of which will be for French workers.

The Chateauroux region, once a centre for apparel manufacturing, lost it all to China. The planned departure of the 1,100-strong French army unit at the airbase would have dealt a further blow to the area. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government's proposal to set up an industrial park next to the former American airbase was received warmly by grateful town officials.

The Chinese plan to locate final assembly operations of many of its exports to Europe in France follows the tradition established by Japanese firms in the 1970s and 1980s. Facing rising protectionism from Europe and the US, and to benefit from low-cost and efficient supply-chain production, Japanese automakers moved much of their operations abroad. Criticism of Japan soon melted, as rising Japanese investments created jobs.

Unlike Japan, though, the Chinese would not be shifting entire factories to France. Chinese factories in China would still be producing the parts for final assembly in France, where a 'Made in Europe' or 'Made in France' label might be slapped on the products. French commentators have noted that the most important value addition for the Chinese would be the 'Made in Europe' cachet for goods often sneered at as of poor quality.

Moving the assembly and distribution of products closer to where the customers are is likely to help Chinese companies secure a long-term client base. Offering the after-sale services that their France-based operations would allow could be valuable for penetrating the continent. It is perhaps with this long-term perspective in mind that Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei recently set up a research centre in the Paris region.

The Chinese move could also yield a public relations dividend. Although scepticism prevails over the actual number of jobs the Chinese would create, the mere act of establishing a Chinese industrial park could help dampen charges that China is stealing European jobs.

French reactions to the news of this reverse outsourcing have been cautious. Conservative commentaries warn of a 'Chinese Trojan horse' in the heart of Europe. They claim these French-made goods will harm domestic production. Officials struggling with rising unemployment, on the other hand, hope the Chinese will help reverse the trend.

Allowing Chinese companies a beachhead in France would also benefit French aviation and shipping. Chinese state-owned shipping company Cosco already holds a 35-year lease on the container terminals at the port of Athens, Greece, giving China another foothold on Europe's shores.

Some French analysts worry that poor-quality Chinese products, some of which have been recalled in recent years, could damage the continent's reputation. But such worries pale before the immediate gains that China's Chateauroux deal offers. French workers, who have largely seen globalisation as a dark cloud on the horizon, might at last note a silver lining.

The writer is director of publications at the Yale Centre for the Study of Globalisation, and the editor of YaleGlobal Online.

Source - The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/Review/Others/STIStory_549621.html)

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No cheap labor? China increases minimum wages

Print

By Uking Sun (chinadaily.com.cn)

At least 18 provinces, including big cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, have increased the minimum wage by an average of 20 percent from Thursday as officials hint cheap labor may no longer be considered China’s sole competitive edge.

Jiangsu province was the first to increase its minimum wage this year, ushering in the beginning of a nationwide wave that will be followed by 27 provinces and municipalities by the end of this year, the First Financial Daily reported.

Sun Qunyi, an expert with Wage Research Institute at the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said this round of wage increases is compensation to low-income workers since the global economic crisis froze wages in 2009.

The share of personal income in China's gross domestic product has fallen to 39.7 percent in 2005 from 56.5 percent in 1983, statistics released by All-China Federation of Trade Unions showed. Wage increases were also far behind the economic growth.

Despite the increase, the minimum wage is still quite low compared with the average wage level. The average wage in Hainan was 2,077 yuan, but the minimum wage stood only at 630 yuan.

Amid worries that the wage increase may add to the company's operations costs and end China's status as a low-wage manufacturer, Yao Jian, a spokesman with the Ministry of Commerce, explained that China's attraction to foreign investors is not all about cheap labor force, but includes a great market and a complete industry chain.

Yao also said that the wage increase is both in accordance with the government’s efforts to adjust industrial policy and to assist more people to share the achievements of economic development.

Lu Ning, chief commentator of The Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post, thought the wage increase will not force foreigner-owned companies to pull out China, but can help different regions in China to adjust the economic structure.

The latest round of wage increases also happened after a series of strikes for higher pay at foreign-owned factories, and an expectation of increasing income among Chinese young migrant workers.

Source : China Daily (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-07/02/content_10053553.htm)

 

Strength in American individualism

Print

P-4

I'VE railed often - in these pages and elsewhere - against the corrosive impact of excessive individualism on values: the cult of the hero-chief exec, the fixation on me-first thinking, the obsession with instant gratification, qualities that have all come together to create the economic monster that is American capitalism.

A reader may thus be forgiven for thinking I must be quite anti-American. But that would be wholly incorrect. There is a trend internationally to regard America with disdain, and criticise its many failings. Although there is no doubt that America has in the last 10 years shown some tarnished spots on its slipping crown, there is no doubt in my mind that it is still a great country.

The same individualism that has led to disaster because it was pursued to excess, will also be the source of America's eventual resurgence. Resourcefulness, initiative, innovation are the other side of the coin of individualism.

I wasn't pondering such profound thoughts when my family holidayed in the United States recently. But from the ethnic jungles of San Francisco to the neon canyons of Las Vegas, I found myself recalling that phrase in the Simon and Garfunkel song from my baby-boomer youth: 'I've come to look for America'.

Other songs of the culture - from Woody Guthrie's This Land Is My Land to Bruce Springsteen's Born On The Fourth Of July - conjure emotions that help explain why American nationalism is among the strongest in the developed world.

In such a vast land of accumulated differences, pride in individualism - the respect Americans accord the sanctity of the individual and thus, meritocracy - binds its citizens together.

At its best, American individualism embraces the notion that every person matters. Increasingly, in American cities especially on the coasts, you will find that social categories are less important than individual histories.

People are interested in where others come from, what they have done, where they are going. Personalities - the flipside of which is the cult of the celebrity - are accorded considerably more respect than in other countries. That's probably why, though it is one of the most economically unequal societies in the world, a streak of egalitarianism pervades American culture, enabling the waiter to chat with the wealthy patron, the barman with the billionaire.

As one American said: 'In this country, you can be a gardener and if you tell your friends that you want to be President of the United States, no one's gonna laugh at you. They tell you, 'Good Luck!', and clap you on the back. You can be anything you want to be.'

This perhaps also partly explains a unique aspect of American service culture: it's friendliness rather than its efficiency. Naturally, the tipping culture is a major incentive in improving service attitudes, but service providers chit-chat with customers in a way unimaginable in Singapore, venturing opinions not only on the service product, but on virtually everything else. There is a self-confidence among service providers that allows them not to feel that service is a servile job.

This individualism also translates to an endearingly naive idealism that still clings to the old frontier values of self-reliance and resourcefulness - what I call the DIY (do-it-yourself), Mr Fix-It values. Individualism means you are your own life project; you make endless improvements on your surroundings, your loved ones, yourself.

This is reflected in that uniquely American optimism - a cheery can-do attitude to solving even the most intractable personal problems. This attitude has had interesting results:

First, several times more self-help books are sold in US bookstores than anywhere else in the world. No matter what the problem is, there's always a book or motivational speaker who can help you to help yourself. And second, more items are sold in America's DIY stores than in the largest Wal-Mart.

The American values of DIY struck me when I flipped through the pages of an airline magazine. The in-flight shopping magazines of US airlines are an expedition into the minds of middle America. Magazines of other international airlines feature almost exclusively alcohol, tobacco and branded goods. American airlines' in-flight magazines are chock-a-block with the most practical offerings: devices to save time, to save effort, to make life just that much easier. I found advertisements for special ladders for dogs to climb on to their owners' beds, self-cleaning feeding troughs and an orthopaedically-ideal canine bed.

Revealingly, virtually all of the several hundred items in Sky Mall (United Airline's inflight sales almanac) were designed and manufactured by American SMEs. Here's a random sample of some of the products: The Solar-powered Mole Repeller; the Arthritis Pain Relieving Gloves; the Only Underwater Pogo Stick; the All Season Deer Repellent; the Breathe Fit Anti Snoring Aid.

Americans tend to believe solutions can be found to any problem, so long as one tries earnestly to find or invent a solution. This led a European friend of mine to muse: 'Why can't Americans just be less optimistic and more European... They're so naive!'

But such naivete is at the heart of American inventiveness. If it's broken, fix it. If it ain't broken, improve it. If there's a problem, invent a solution. Any problem, psychic to physical, can be fixed. Life is the ultimate DIY problem.

Whether it is Alexis de Tocqueville, the French observer of American democracy and culture in the 1830s, or the balladeers Simon and Garfunkel, or my own humble musings on Americana, what is common to all observers of this inspiring and infuriating nation is a sense that its greatness has not yet been exhausted, that its destiny, often heavily clouded, is still yet to be manifest.

The writer is chairman of the board of trustees of the Singapore Management University. Think-Tank is a weekly column rotated among eight leading figures from Singapore's tertiary and research institutions.

Source - The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/Review/Others/STIStory_547414.html)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fear not inflation or deflation - for now

Print

THE U.S. ECONOMY

By Martin Feldstein

a27

THE investors that I talk to these days are not sure whether to worry more about future inflation in the United States or about future deflation.

The good news is that the answer - for at least the next few years - is that investors should worry about 'neither'.

America's high rate of unemployment and the low rates of capacity utilisation imply that there is little upward pressure on wages and prices in the country. And the recent rise in the value of the dollar relative to the euro and the British pound helps by reducing import costs.

Those who emphasise the risk of inflation often point to America's enormous budget deficit.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the country's fiscal deficit will average 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the rest of the decade, driving government debt to 90 per cent of GDP, from less than 60 per cent of GDP last year. While those large fiscal deficits will be a major problem for the US economy if nothing is done to bring them down, they need not be inflationary.

Sustained budget deficits crowd out private investment, push up long-term real interest rates and increase the burden on future taxpayers. But they do not cause inflation unless they lead to excess demand for goods and labour. The last time the US faced large budget deficits, in the early 1980s, inflation declined sharply because of a tight monetary policy. Europe and Japan now have both large fiscal deficits and low inflation.

The inflation pessimists worry that the government will actually choose a policy of faster price growth to reduce the real value of the government debt.

But such a strategy can work only in countries where the duration of the government's debt is long and the interest rate on that debt is fixed. That is because an increase in the inflation rate causes interest rates on new debt to rise by an equal amount. The resulting higher interest payments add to the national debt, offsetting the erosion of the real value of the existing debt caused by the higher inflation.

In the current situation, the US cannot reduce the real value of its government debt significantly by indulging in a bout of inflation, because the average maturity on existing debt is very short - only about four years.

And the projected fiscal deficits imply that the additional debt that will be issued during the next decade will be as large as the total stock of debt today. So raising inflation is no cure for the government's current debt or future deficits.

Those who worry about deflation note that the US consumer price index has not increased at all in the past three months. Why won't that continue and feed on itself - as it has in Japan - as consumers delay spending in anticipation of even lower prices in the future? And doesn't Japan's persistent deflation since the early 1990s also show that, once it begins, deflation cannot be reversed by a policy of easy money or fiscal deficits?

But the recent weakness in US prices is very different from the situation that prevails in Japan. Zero inflation for the past three months has been a one-time event driven by the fall in energy prices. The other broad components of the consumer price index have increased in recent months, and the consumer price index is up about 2 percentage points over the past 12 months.

Moreover, surveys of consumer expectations show that US households expect prices to rise at more than 2 per cent in both the coming year and the more distant future. That expected inflation rate is consistent with the difference in interest rates between ordinary US government bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. With such expectations, consumers have no reason to put off purchases.

A second reason for relatively low inflation in recent years has been a temporary fall in the cost of production. As firms shed workers during the economic downturn, output fell more slowly. The resulting rise in output per worker, together with slow wage growth, reduced unit labour costs. That process is now coming to an end as employment rises.

So the good news is that the possibility of significant inflation or deflation during the next few years is low on the list of economic risks faced by the US economy and by financial investors.

But while inflation is very likely to remain low for the next few years, I am puzzled that bond prices show that investors apparently expect inflation to remain low for 10 years and beyond, and that they also do not require higher interest rates as compensation for the risk that the fiscal deficit will cause real interest rates to rise in the future.

The writer, a professor of economics at Harvard University, was chairman of former US president Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers and president of the National Bureau for Economic Research.

PROJECT SYNDICATE

Source - The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/Review/Others/STIStory_545739.html?sunwMethod=GET)

 


Page 6 of 16